Published Research

This paper develops the Global Gaidar Model, a 17-region, 2-skills, 100-period overlapping generations (OLG) model, to project the future of economic power. The model is calibrated to 2017 UN demographic and IMF fiscal data. Productivity growth and its interaction with demographic change are the main drivers of future economic power. Fiscal conditions and automation matter, but are secondary factors

Joint with Laurence J Kotlikoff, Maria Kazakova, Guillermo Lagarda,

Kristina Nesterova,Victor Yifan Ye, Andrey Zubarev 
Published at Oxford Review of Economic Policy

During the COVID-19 pandemic, US deaths per case decreased from 7.46\% in April 2020 to 1.76\% in April 2021. Health information technologies in hospitals helped them learn and implement best practices. 

Joint with Avi Collis, Christos Nicolaides, and Indranil Bardhan

Published at Nature Health Systems

We extend Barkai (2016) and measure capital costs and profits over the period 1946–2015. The profit share is declining from 1946 to the early 1980s and has been increasing since. As a share of gross value added, profits today are higher than they were in 1984, but lower than their value in the years after World War II. Alternative measures of profits show similar trends. Joint with Simcha Barkai,
Published at Journal of Corporate Finance

Antitrust regulators should should use the theory of digital platforms to better design remedies, and should have the power to compel platforms to give them the data necessary to estimate the effects of remedies.

Joint with Felix Chang 

Published at The Vanderbilt Law Review

We measure the growth in API use by businesses, and measure the impact of adoption on firm outcomes. We find that APIs help platforms grow by 'inverting' the firm: i.e. recruiting external partners to develop complementary innovations and connect their resources to those of other firms. 

Joint with Jonathan Hersh

Published at Management Science

We evaluate the efficiency of US social distancing policy, extending our analysis in 'Rationing Social Contact'. We find that policymaking failed to efficiently ration contact both across locations and time. 

Joint with Christos Nicolaides and Avi Collis

Published at Risk Analysis

An analysis linking European royal kinship networks, monarchies, and wars to study the effect of family ties on conflict. Random cuts of family ties between monarchs due to death are shown to increase bilateral war frequency and severity.

Joint with Kevin Cooke

Published at American Economic Journal: Applied Economics

We measure the welfare loss due to unpriced social distancing externalities and lack of coordination.

Joint with final authors Dean Eccles and Sinan Aral and others 

Published at Proceedings of the National Academy of the Sciences 

We measure the relative transmission reduction benefit and social cost of closing 26 categories of US locations. From February to March 2020, there were larger declines in visits to locations that our measures indicate should be closed first.
Joint with Avi Collis and Christos Nicolaides

Published at Proceedings of the National Academy of the Sciences

Estimation of the economic effects of reducing social security benefits with seven large scale agent based models. 

Joint with convening Authors Jaeger Nelson and Kerk Philips and others 

Published at National Tax Journal

We find that capital import controls on Russia would reduce domestic lifetime welfare for most generations, even if Russia seized all foreign assets in response.

Joint with Guillermo Lagarda

Published at Asian Economic Papers